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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Thursday, 01 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET RISES TO NEW HEIGHTS ON RENEWED DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on rising this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climbing to 1,846 points on Wednes ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INTO CHINA, THE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW - BRS
Capesize
The Capesize market in Atlantic stayed pretty firm last week with transatlantic rounds being fixed in the high twenties. Sentiment was les ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE OF INDONESIA COLLAPSED AT KUKAR, EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - A suspension bridge in Indonesia’s east Kalimantan province over the Mahakam river collapsed on Saturday, killing at least elev ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
BUKIT ASAM SCOUTS RP3 TRILLION PROFIT - INSIDER STORIES
The state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to post a Rp3 trillion net income this year, reaching its target which is 50% above ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS WEEK ON HIGHER NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Contrary to what had been the case during the past few weeks, this one began on a high note for the dry bulk market, with the Capesize sector pullin ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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