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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Monday, 28 November 11
CITING CONTRACTS, MINING FIRMS ARE NOT PAYING ROYALTIES UNDER LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, when the 2009 Law on Minerals and Coal was endorsed, hopes that Indonesia could maximize its revenue from the minera ...
Monday, 28 November 11
NEW ENVIRONMENTAL MARINE REGULATIONS TO IMPACT SHIPPING IN 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
August of next year will see some major changes for marine navigation. It’s when the North American ECA will come into force, introducing a 1% ...
Sunday, 27 November 11
INDIA'S KPCL TO IMPORT 50 MMT OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
COALspot.com - Karnataka Power Corporation Limited (KPCL) will buy 5 million metric tonnes of coal annually for 10 years starting from 2015.
In a ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
INDIAN PORTS ARE BECOME COAL STOCKPILES..!!
COALspot.com - The Indian coal stocks and power tariff situation is the hot topic among the world coal producers as well as Indian coal importers.&n ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market were down probably with the sentiments of global financial markets and all segments were down.
The BDI was up down by 4 ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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