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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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