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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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