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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Wednesday, 07 March 12
3RD MOZAMBIQUE COAL CONFERENCE
3rd Mozambique Coal Conference
2-4 July 2012 | Joaquim Chissano International Conference Centre , Maputo, Mozambique
http://www.immevents.com/mo ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk c ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
BUKIT ASAM EYES 39% RISE IN COAL SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Bukit Asam Tbk is scouting a 39% increase in coal sales volume to 18.66 million tons this year from last year with ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
PETROSEA SEALS US$188 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk has secured a US$188 million additional contract from its affiliated firm PT S ...
Monday, 05 March 12
SOUTHGOBI ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO SELL ITS THERMAL COAL TSAGAAN TOLGOI DEPOSIT FOR US$ 30 MILLION
SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) announced today an agreement to sell its thermal coal property, the Tsagaan Tolgoi Deposit to Modun Re ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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