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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any ...
Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for ...
Sunday, 11 March 12
FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRM- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up except for the Cape index.
The BDI was up by 6.87 pct closing at 824 points ...
Friday, 09 March 12
MINING IN INDONESIA: RESTRICTION ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Recently Govt has passed regulation instructing foreign mining companies to reduce their ownership stake.
The regulation known as ...
Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
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Showing 4811 to 4815 news of total 6871 |
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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