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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Thursday, 15 March 12
RESOURCE ALAM FY11 PROFIT UP 171% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) reported a 171.16% jump in net profit last year on the back ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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