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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 22 March 12
ECI-CHINA HANDY RATES ARE AROUND US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another positive trend was seen last week with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw-Passero/US Gulf climbed slowly up to USD 3700, while US ...
Thursday, 22 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS SURGING, CAPESIZES FALLING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what seems to be an establishing pattern, the dry bulk market has kept its upward momentum, edging closer to the 900 point-mark, but the larger s ...
Wednesday, 21 March 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2012
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur's overburden removal in February 2012 has reached totaled 23.8 million bcm (+2.4% YoY) while coal production ...
Tuesday, 20 March 12
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS STILL LEADING DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been growing during the past couple of weeks, but contrary to the usual practice, it’s not the larger Capesizes which ...
Monday, 19 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW: SMALLER VESSELS LEAD RATES HIGHER - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The upward trend of the Baltic Dry Index persists strong from the end of February, spurred from the supramax market that offsets the weakness in the ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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