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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 27 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEP RISING FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND OF LAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum this week, on the same reasons of those last week. That is, the smaller ship types are still on the ris ...
Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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