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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
DRY BULK EDGED FURTHER UP, ON HEALTHY DEMAND FOR MOST SHIP TYPES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With capesize vessels finally reappearing in demand, the dry bulk market had an easier task of rising yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reach ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
ADARO FY11 NET INCOME JUMPS 124% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) today announced a 124% jump in net income to US$552 million last year or US$0.017 a share. ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
CUESTA HAS RECEIVED APPLICATIONS AND FIRM BIDS IN EXCESS OF $9 MILLION FOR THE COMPANYS IPO
COALspot.com - The Directors of Cuesta Coal Limited (ASX:CQC) have announced that today it has received applications and firm bids in excess of $9 m ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY TO COMMENCE JORC DRILLING AT ADK PROJECT
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal explorer and producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG), have today announced that the company is about to commence a drillin ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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