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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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