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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
TWO PERCENT OF IBP CONCESSION CONTAINS 42 MMT OF COAL
COALspot.com - 42.35 million ton of coal found in just 2% of PT Insani Bara Perkasa’s total concession area of 24,477 hectare.
Accord ...
Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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