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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 20 April 12
PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A rebound of demand for smaller dry bulk carriers has led the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) above the 1,000-point mark for ...
Friday, 20 April 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.6 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2012
COALspot.com - BUMA has removed 28.0 million bcm (+6.4% YoY) of overburden in March 2012 while coal production was at 2.6 million tons (+1.3% YoY).
...
Thursday, 19 April 12
FRESH COAL SALES FROM JATENERGYS JONGKANG MINES
COALspot.com - Energy company Jatenergy Ltd (ASX code JAT) announced today that it had signed a contract for an 11,000 tonne coal sale due for shipm ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
HANDY - 'POSITIVE TREND', PANAMAX - 'A FIRMER TENDENCY', CAPESIZE - 'AGAIN NEGATIVE'
Handy
The positive trend from last week continued, with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw/Passero del fixed tick above USD 4000 for US Gulf di ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
WILLIS MARINE MARKET REVIEW FORECASTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR - WILLIS GLOBAL MARINE / HELLENIC SHIPPING
After an inauspicious start, 2012 could well be "another difficult and uncertain year for the maritime industry faced with the aftermath of the ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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