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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Thursday, 26 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS 1Q OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN HAS INCREASED BY 6% TO RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (Persero), the Indonesia’s state owned coal miner's 1Q, 2012 revenue has increased by 31% to Rp. 3.02 trillion ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 1.15 MILLION TONS OF 5000 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.125million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tender ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 375,000 MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 375,000 metric tons of low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
ADK SHIPPED 28,000 TONNES OF COAL THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced that four coal barges carrying a total of approximately 28,000 tonnes of ADK (Alam Duta K ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
DRY BULK CARRIERS RENTER FLEET AFTER IDLING, ON MARKETS RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be back on track, not only solidifying the gains of the past couple of weeks, but also racing to new heights, recuperra ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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