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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 01 May 12
VIETNAM FEARS IT MAY NOT SEEK COAL SUPPLIES - TBKTSG / VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
TBKTSG / VietNamNet Bridge reported that, with five coal-run thermopower plants under construction, PetroVietnam alone would need 18 million tons of ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to go up with the support of Panamax/Supramax and was up by 8.34 pct closing at 1,156 points.
The cape index was ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR MAY 2012 DELIVERY WAS STABLE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps for May deliveries stable this week, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. In the me ...
Friday, 27 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS NET INCOME UP 14% IN 1Q 2012 (UNAUDITED)
Press Release - PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk, announced the Consolidated Financial Statements and Subsidiaries per 31 March 2012 (Unaudited).
Reve ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
AUSTRALIAS COKAL EXPANDS MET COAL POTENTIAL INTO WEST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Global metallurgical coal group Cokal Limited (Cokal) (ASX:CKA) announced today it has completed the acquisition of 75.2% of PT Silan ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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