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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and s ...
Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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