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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 15 May 12
POTENTIAL BOOM OF CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD PROVIDE FURTHER SUPPORT TO DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been moving sideways during the past week with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing 0.53% on th ...
Saturday, 12 May 12
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS UNLIKELY TO SEE A REBOUND ANYTIME SOON - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI softened this week and it was down by 1.64 pct closing at 1,138 points.
The cape index was up by 2.41 pct closing at 1,61 ...
Friday, 11 May 12
POLITICAL CHANGES COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY HALT IN SHIPPING INVESTMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The potential of changes of political leadership in many of the world’s leading economies could very well lead to significant shifts in the di ...
Thursday, 10 May 12
DRY BULK ERRATIC ON LACK OF DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept up its erratic behavior as it went down again during yesterday’s session, on a lack of direct guidance in terms o ...
Wednesday, 09 May 12
COAL INDIA SIGNS FSAS WITH 13 POWER UNITS SO FAR - PTI
Press Trust of India has reported that, coal India has so far entered into fuel supply pacts with 13 power units, including Reliance Power's Rosa P ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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