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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 22 May 12
NEW ONE-YEAR TIME CHARTERS FOR TWO VESSELS OF EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS LTD.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and an international provider of worldwide seaborne transportat ...
Tuesday, 22 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, AWAITING FURTHER RISE IN DEMAND WHICH IS DOUBTFUL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, the second and third quarters of the year are the strongest for the dry bulk market, but this year, things seem to be quite subdued, ...
Sunday, 20 May 12
SPOT FREIGHT RATE DIPS FURTHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was marginally up by 3 points (0.26 pct) closing at 1,141 points.
The cape index was up by 1.17 pct closing at 1,633 point ...
Saturday, 19 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP US$ 2.88 PMT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries have drops this week by 3.86 percent and& ...
Saturday, 19 May 12
INDONESIAN EXPORT TAX GIVES COAL MINERS A CHEAP RIDE: ANALYSTS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s policy to exclude coal from an export tax that has been applied to 14 other mineral commodities h ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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