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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Monday, 28 May 12
COAL EXPORTS ARE JUMPING HIGHER, BUT PRICES ARE FALLING LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31.86* million tons of coal in April 2012, compared to 30.64* million tons i ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fourth straight week and the BDI fell by 9.38 pct this week closing at 1,034 points.
The Cape Si ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS HEADING TO SOUTH DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries have dropped this week by 5.43 percent an ...
Saturday, 26 May 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CUT BACK ON TONNAGE SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of dry bulk carriers has been the most prominent problem in the market today, pushing down rates and ‘strangling’ profita ...
Thursday, 24 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS ON LACK OF CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday on the back of lower Chinese demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore, typically hauled by dry bulk ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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