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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Wednesday, 06 June 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICES CONTINUING ITS DECLINE
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since January 2011 in June 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month ...
Monday, 04 June 12
MITRABAHTERA SUBSIDIARY SECURES CONTRACT FROM BERAU COAL - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Mitra Alam Segara Sejati, a subsidiary that is 60% owned by PT Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati Tbk (MBSS), has secur ...
Sunday, 03 June 12
TTI ESTABLISHES COAL TRADING & MARKETING OFFICE
COALspot.com - TTI has officially established its coal trading, marketing-office in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT. Gunung Tinggi Coal is the TTI’s fi ...
Sunday, 03 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUING ITS DECLINE
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fifth straight week and the BDI fell by 2.57 pct this week closing at 904 points.
The Cape Size ...
Friday, 01 June 12
TNPL HAS SECURED 300K MT OF 6000 GAD COAL AT US$ 81 CNF TUTICORIN
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Adani has offered the lowest price of US$ 81.00 per metric ton for calorific value of 6000 GAD and 15 perc ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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