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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
Friday, 08 June 12
NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ADARO'S RATING FROM BEP TRANSACTION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has said that PT Adaro Indonesia's (Adaro, 'BB+'/ Stable) ratings are not immediately affected by its parent PT Adaro Energy Tbk's ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS FOR 10 STRAIGHT SESSION ON OVERSUPPLY PROBLEMS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A resurgence of oversupply, coupled with national holidays in various parts of the world has contributed to yet another fall of the dry bulk market ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
COAL EXPORT TAX NOT RATIONAL: MINISTER - THE JAKARTA POST
Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan has criticized as irrational the idea to restrict coal exports by imposing an export tax, According to The Jakarta post ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
BY 2022 PLN IS EXPECTED TO BURN AROUND 125 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state owned electricity company's (PLN) coal consumption is expected to reach 125.7 million tons by 2012.
Nur Pamudj ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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