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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affe ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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