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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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