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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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