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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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