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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 June 12
COKAL ACCEPTED ON THE CLEAN AND CLEAR LIST FOR ITS BORNEO BARA PRIMA AND BUMI BARITO MINERAL PROJECTS
- Borneo Bara Prima (BBP) Project confirmed on the Clean and Clear List 9th May 2012
- Bumi Barito Mineral (BBM) Project confirmed on the Clean and ...
Friday, 01 June 12
ADARO BUYS MAJORITY STAKE IN AFFILIATED BHAKTI ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk entered into an option to provide a convertible loan of up to US$500 million for a period of 3 ye ...
Thursday, 31 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET UNABLE TO FIND NEW SUPPORT TO REACH HIGHER LEVELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been unable to find new support and recover to higher levels during these past few days. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index ( ...
Wednesday, 30 May 12
ORPHEUS RAISES $2.24M TO ADVANCE INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION ASSETS
• $2.24 million raised from a placement to new and existing institutional and sophisticated investors from Australia and overseas
• Funds ...
Wednesday, 30 May 12
ARPENI SECURES TRANSSHIPMENT CONTRACT FROM BARUNA DIRGA
Insider Stories reported that, shipping operator PT Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Tbk (APOL) has secured a 1-year coal transhipment contract of 4 millio ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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