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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Friday, 18 May 12
EXPORT TAX WILL ERODE PROFITS, INDONESIAN COAL EXEC COMPLAINS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, A 20 percent export duty the government has imposed on 14 mineral ore products will not only take a toll on mining ...
Friday, 18 May 12
KOREA EAST WEST POWER LOOKING FOR TOTAL 2.6 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL AT FIXED PRICE FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com - Korea East West Power Co., Ltd is inviting bids to supply of 520,000 Metric Tons (per annum) of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg coal of N ...
Friday, 18 May 12
NICKEL ORE CARGOES ARE NOT SEEN IN MARKET ANYMORE DUE TO ON-GOING INDONESIAN BAN - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The market remained variable.
Fronthaul voyages both from Baltic and Black Sea paid over USD 18k/day. From USG to Cont tonnage would get ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
COAL MINERS OPPOSE EXPORT TAX, SUGGEST OUTPUT QUOTA - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, coal miners have suggested that the government apply a production quota instead of implementing an export tax in ord ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways during this week, with the mixed performance across all segments. Yesterday, the industry’s be ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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