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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 26 April 12
PANAMAXES AGAIN EARN MORE THAN CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 ...
Wednesday, 25 April 12
CHINA IMPORTS 9.76 MMT AND INDIA IMPORTS 7.03 MMT OF INDONESIAN COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 30.64* million tons of coal in March 2012, compared to 27.12* million tons i ...
Monday, 23 April 12
ALTURA ENTERS INTO AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE 2 COAL PROJECTS IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Altura Mining Limited (ASX: AJM) has announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a further two (2) Mining Permits (IUP ...
Sunday, 22 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI has broken the psychological barrier of 1000 points and closed at 1067 points.
The cape index was slightly down by 2.48 pc ...
Saturday, 21 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP 2.61 PERCENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps fell for a fifth day, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps.
CFR South China Coal ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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