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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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