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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Monday, 05 March 12
SOME RESOURCE TITANS NOT THRILLED WITH INDONESIAN EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, local representatives of major business associations in East Kalimantan have protested a government regulation that ...
Monday, 05 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An air of optimism poured in the market this week for dry bulk shippers with the Baltic Dry Index recording daily gains during the end of February b ...
Sunday, 04 March 12
SE ASIA WAS FIRM FOR TRIPS TO INDIA AND CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up and generally market was firm.
The BDI was up by 7.38 pct closing at 771 po ...
Friday, 02 March 12
DJMBP HAS ANNOUNCED SECOND BATCH OF CLEAR N CLEAN CERTIFIED MINERS
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has announced second batch of companies who have passed IUP Clear and Clea ...
Thursday, 01 March 12
BUKIT ASAM TARGETS EUROPEAN INVESTORS
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (persero) Tbk, Indonesian state owned coal miner is planning to conduct road show in Europe next week to target at Eur ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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