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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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