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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
Monday, 20 February 12
COAL BOOM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The dawn of the 21st century has seen a shift in the world's commercial balance of power, with the dominance of the US, Europe and J ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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