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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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