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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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