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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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