We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 22 January 12
FREIGHT MARKET DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to soften almost reaching 2008 levels breaking the 1,000 point mark", said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Sh ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
ASIAS PREMIER COMPREHENSIVE OPEN CUT MINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 2012
As the only such conference in the region for miners and service providers, IBC Asia’s Open Cut Mine Planning & Operational Excellence con ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
COAL MARKETS CELEBRATES A DECADE OF BRINGING BUYERS & SELLERS TOGETHER
In 2012, IBC Asia’s premier Coal Markets conference series – Asia’s only globally focused coal import, export and supply chain eve ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
SAMIN TAN COMPLETES BUMI PLC TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesian coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN), that is controlled by stellar businessm ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES SELLS MORE THAN FOUR MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2011, 58% MORE THAN 2010
COALspot.com - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) has successfully complets year 2011 on guidance in terms of coal sales and production.
...
|
|
|
Showing 4876 to 4880 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
