We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 19 January 12
14TH VOGP MEETING IN HO CHI MINH CITY HANDS OUT LATEST UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAM'S ENERGY INDUSTRY
Press Release: At upcoming 14th Vietnam Oil Gas Power on 27-28 Feb in Ho Chi Minh City the industry’s most influential names including Petrovi ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
DELTA DUNIA SEALS US$820 MIO CONTRACT INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ( ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
WARM WINTER ACROSS EUROPE HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY COAL DEMAND - BRS
With the Chinese New Year just a week away, all markets are slowing down. The drop in freight rates for all sizes has been significant over the past ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET'S DRAMA CONTINUES IN START OF NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of newbuilding deliveries, coupled with a slow start to the new year, a typical trend for the dry bulk market, has led the industry's benc ...
Monday, 16 January 12
BUMA MINED 2.7 MILLION TONS COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - BUMA has mined 2.7 million tons (-14.1% YoY) coal last month and removed 25.8 million bcm (-5.6% YoY) overburden, according to compan ...
|
|
|
Showing 4881 to 4885 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
