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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 31 January 12
THERE ARE MANY GOOD REASONS FOR COAL IN GERMANY - DR CIESLIK
COALspot.com - "The year 2011 was again marked by many changes on the markets and energy policies, at times in line with expectations, but at o ...
Tuesday, 31 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING FOR WORST MONTH IN YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn't manage to put a halt in its downfall, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), posting yet another fa ...
Monday, 30 January 12
CHINA'S HUNGER FOR COAL LEAVES DENT IN PENNSYLVANIA'S SUPPLY - THOMAS LESKIN
With the price of heating oil on the rise, one of Pennsylvania's greatest natural resources - coal - is in high demand, and not just locally.
Et ...
Saturday, 28 January 12
WILL FREIGHT MARKET STABILIZE FROM NEXT WEEK?
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften with BDI at 663 points down by 15.78 pct closing at 726 points and cape index was down by 5.73 pct cl ...
Friday, 27 January 12
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY NEEDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR AS WELL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of vessels in most shipping sectors is so intense that it’s become clear to ship owners that unless they scrap as many of their ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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