We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 31 January 12
THERE ARE MANY GOOD REASONS FOR COAL IN GERMANY - DR CIESLIK
COALspot.com - "The year 2011 was again marked by many changes on the markets and energy policies, at times in line with expectations, but at o ...
Tuesday, 31 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING FOR WORST MONTH IN YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn't manage to put a halt in its downfall, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), posting yet another fa ...
Monday, 30 January 12
CHINA'S HUNGER FOR COAL LEAVES DENT IN PENNSYLVANIA'S SUPPLY - THOMAS LESKIN
With the price of heating oil on the rise, one of Pennsylvania's greatest natural resources - coal - is in high demand, and not just locally.
Et ...
Saturday, 28 January 12
WILL FREIGHT MARKET STABILIZE FROM NEXT WEEK?
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften with BDI at 663 points down by 15.78 pct closing at 726 points and cape index was down by 5.73 pct cl ...
Friday, 27 January 12
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY NEEDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR AS WELL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of vessels in most shipping sectors is so intense that it’s become clear to ship owners that unless they scrap as many of their ...
|
|
|
Showing 4866 to 4870 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
