We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 10 February 12
TONNAGE KEEPS ON COMING - DREWRY
Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to cont ...
Friday, 10 February 12
GIVE PERMIT POWERS TO GOVERNORS: MINERS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, following clashes between mining companies and local residents, the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) wants to tra ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
AUSTRALIA'S EPIC TO ACQUIRE 15,500 HA COAL EXPLORATION LICENCES IN EAST KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Epic Resources Limited to acquire two coal concessions in Kutai Barat regency, East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to company's ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
RESOURCE ALAM BUYS 28,521HA CONCESSIONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), owned by Adijanto family, today announced acquisition of 75% interest in PT Ka ...
Tuesday, 07 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY STOPS DECLINE, POSTS FIRST RISE IN MORE THAN A MONTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After falling to near record lows, not seen since the mid-80s the dry bulk market has finally stopped its path to "hell", with the industr ...
|
|
|
Showing 4856 to 4860 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
|
| |
| |
|
