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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 10 February 12
TONNAGE KEEPS ON COMING - DREWRY
Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to cont ...
Friday, 10 February 12
GIVE PERMIT POWERS TO GOVERNORS: MINERS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, following clashes between mining companies and local residents, the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) wants to tra ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
AUSTRALIA'S EPIC TO ACQUIRE 15,500 HA COAL EXPLORATION LICENCES IN EAST KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Epic Resources Limited to acquire two coal concessions in Kutai Barat regency, East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to company's ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
RESOURCE ALAM BUYS 28,521HA CONCESSIONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), owned by Adijanto family, today announced acquisition of 75% interest in PT Ka ...
Tuesday, 07 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY STOPS DECLINE, POSTS FIRST RISE IN MORE THAN A MONTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After falling to near record lows, not seen since the mid-80s the dry bulk market has finally stopped its path to "hell", with the industr ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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