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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 20 February 12
COAL BOOM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The dawn of the 21st century has seen a shift in the world's commercial balance of power, with the dominance of the US, Europe and J ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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