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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 20 February 12
COAL BOOM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The dawn of the 21st century has seen a shift in the world's commercial balance of power, with the dominance of the US, Europe and J ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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