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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
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Showing 4836 to 4840 news of total 6871 |
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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