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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
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Showing 4836 to 4840 news of total 6871 |
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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