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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 March 12
SOUTHGOBI ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO SELL ITS THERMAL COAL TSAGAAN TOLGOI DEPOSIT FOR US$ 30 MILLION
SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) announced today an agreement to sell its thermal coal property, the Tsagaan Tolgoi Deposit to Modun Re ...
Monday, 05 March 12
SOME RESOURCE TITANS NOT THRILLED WITH INDONESIAN EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, local representatives of major business associations in East Kalimantan have protested a government regulation that ...
Monday, 05 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An air of optimism poured in the market this week for dry bulk shippers with the Baltic Dry Index recording daily gains during the end of February b ...
Sunday, 04 March 12
SE ASIA WAS FIRM FOR TRIPS TO INDIA AND CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up and generally market was firm.
The BDI was up by 7.38 pct closing at 771 po ...
Friday, 02 March 12
DJMBP HAS ANNOUNCED SECOND BATCH OF CLEAR N CLEAN CERTIFIED MINERS
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has announced second batch of companies who have passed IUP Clear and Clea ...
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Showing 4826 to 4830 news of total 6871 |
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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