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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
3RD MOZAMBIQUE COAL CONFERENCE
3rd Mozambique Coal Conference
2-4 July 2012 | Joaquim Chissano International Conference Centre , Maputo, Mozambique
http://www.immevents.com/mo ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk c ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
BUKIT ASAM EYES 39% RISE IN COAL SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Bukit Asam Tbk is scouting a 39% increase in coal sales volume to 18.66 million tons this year from last year with ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
PETROSEA SEALS US$188 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk has secured a US$188 million additional contract from its affiliated firm PT S ...
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Showing 4821 to 4825 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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