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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
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Showing 4816 to 4820 news of total 6871 |
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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