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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 March 12
RESOURCE ALAM FY11 PROFIT UP 171% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) reported a 171.16% jump in net profit last year on the back ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
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Showing 4806 to 4810 news of total 6871 |
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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