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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 March 12
ECI-CHINA HANDY RATES ARE AROUND US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another positive trend was seen last week with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw-Passero/US Gulf climbed slowly up to USD 3700, while US ...
Thursday, 22 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS SURGING, CAPESIZES FALLING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what seems to be an establishing pattern, the dry bulk market has kept its upward momentum, edging closer to the 900 point-mark, but the larger s ...
Wednesday, 21 March 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2012
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur's overburden removal in February 2012 has reached totaled 23.8 million bcm (+2.4% YoY) while coal production ...
Tuesday, 20 March 12
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS STILL LEADING DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been growing during the past couple of weeks, but contrary to the usual practice, it’s not the larger Capesizes which ...
Monday, 19 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW: SMALLER VESSELS LEAD RATES HIGHER - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The upward trend of the Baltic Dry Index persists strong from the end of February, spurred from the supramax market that offsets the weakness in the ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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