We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
DRY BULK EDGED FURTHER UP, ON HEALTHY DEMAND FOR MOST SHIP TYPES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With capesize vessels finally reappearing in demand, the dry bulk market had an easier task of rising yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reach ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
ADARO FY11 NET INCOME JUMPS 124% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) today announced a 124% jump in net income to US$552 million last year or US$0.017 a share. ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
CUESTA HAS RECEIVED APPLICATIONS AND FIRM BIDS IN EXCESS OF $9 MILLION FOR THE COMPANYS IPO
COALspot.com - The Directors of Cuesta Coal Limited (ASX:CQC) have announced that today it has received applications and firm bids in excess of $9 m ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY TO COMMENCE JORC DRILLING AT ADK PROJECT
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal explorer and producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG), have today announced that the company is about to commence a drillin ...
|
|
|
Showing 4786 to 4790 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
