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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 27 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEP RISING FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND OF LAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum this week, on the same reasons of those last week. That is, the smaller ship types are still on the ris ...
Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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