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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 18 March 12
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT IN 2011 ROSE 54% TO US$ 339.56 MILLION
COALspot.com - Company revenue for the period January - December 2011 amounting to Rp 10.6 trillion (approximately US$ 1,164,835,164.84) recorded an ...
Saturday, 17 March 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA REMAINED FIRM - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The market continued to be firm and all segments were up except for Cape Index which was down by 2.46 pct closing at 1,466 points.
...
Saturday, 17 March 12
INDIAN GOVT FINALIZES DRAFT BILL FOR COAL REGULATOR - PTI
The coal sector would soon get a regulator as the government has finalised a draft bill for the purpose, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said Wedne ...
Friday, 16 March 12
THE PACIFIC MARKET IS FIRMING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A slightly positive trend was seen last week in the Atlantic. Skaw-Passero deliveries fixed around USD 3k to US Gulf, while US Gulf deliveres ...
Thursday, 15 March 12
RAINS AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF COAL WENT UP BY 22 % IN 2011
COALspot.com - PT. Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk, an Indonesian CCoW (3rd Generation) holder reported Wednesday a 171 percent increase in net profits ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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