We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
|
|
|
Showing 4841 to 4845 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
