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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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