We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
Monday, 13 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current sentiment in the dry market resembles memories from the end of 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index closed at the level of 663 points on Dece ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
INDONESIA HAS ISSUED A REGULATION TO BAN THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS AND METALS BY 2014
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has finally issued a ministerial decree (7 Year 2012 dated 6 February 2012) to ban the export of unpro ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CLIMBS 10.51%
COALspot.com - "The markets touched record lows not seen since mid 80’s. However there was some good news with signs of market recovery a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY
The week was highlighted with intense worries in the eurozone for Greece to secure its second bailout of $130billion by applying a ...
|
|
|
Showing 4851 to 4855 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
